How to read the Census retail sales report without overreading it

The Census Bureau’s monthly retail and food-services estimate is an early national snapshot of consumer spending, but it is not a Schaumburg-level scorecard.

Jobs · September 16, 2026

What happened

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Survey, often known as MARTS, provides an early monthly estimate of national sales at retail and food-service businesses. The figures are published on a regular release schedule and summarized in Census tables such as “Estimated Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, by Kind of Business.”

The report is designed to give policymakers, businesses, economists and the public a quick read on spending activity before more complete data are available. It covers U.S.-level retail and food-services sales, not city-level results for Schaumburg or state-level results for Illinois.

Why it matters for jobs and the economy

Retail stores and restaurants are closely watched because they connect household spending with business revenue, staffing needs, inventory decisions and broader economic momentum. When sales appear to rise or fall, analysts often look for clues about whether consumers are spending more freely, pulling back, shifting toward necessities or changing where they shop.

For readers in Schaumburg and elsewhere in Illinois, the report can be useful background for understanding national conditions affecting retailers, restaurants, suppliers and employers. But it should not be treated as a direct measure of Schaumburg’s local economy. The Census Bureau’s advance retail report is national in scope, and a local conclusion would require separate local or Illinois-specific data.

What the data shows

The Census tables present estimated monthly sales in millions of dollars by type of business. The data products also allow comparisons across months and across the same month in prior years, depending on the table and release. Historical PDFs, including examples for December 2024 and May 2025, show how the Bureau archives prior monthly releases.

A key point: these are “advance” estimates. Census produces them early using a sample-based process and adjustment methods. That speed is valuable, but it also means the numbers can be revised as more complete information becomes available in later releases.

How to interpret the report carefully

Readers should keep several cautions in mind. First, the advance estimates are not final totals. Month-to-month changes may look important when first released, but later revisions can change the picture.

Second, the figures are adjusted for seasonal patterns and trading-day effects, but the Census methodology notes that the estimates are not adjusted for price changes. In plain language, higher dollar sales can reflect higher prices, more items sold, a different mix of goods and services, or some combination of those factors.

Third, national averages can hide local differences. A national retail gain does not automatically mean local retailers are seeing the same trend, and a national slowdown does not prove that every Illinois business is weakening.

Consumer and small-business context

Because this report is often used as a window into consumer activity, it is helpful to ask practical questions when reading it: Are sales changing broadly, or only in certain kinds of businesses? Could inflation be affecting the dollar amounts? Are restaurants and stores moving in the same direction, or are consumers shifting spending between categories? Are later revisions confirming the first estimate?

For small businesses, the report can provide national context, but it should not replace local information such as foot traffic, receipts, staffing trends, supplier costs or customer behavior. For consumers, it can help explain headlines about spending and the economy, but it does not determine anyone’s personal budget or financial choices.

Educational note: This article is for general educational purposes only and is not personalized financial, business, investment, tax, credit or legal advice.

Main uncertainties

The biggest uncertainty is the preliminary nature of the data. MARTS is built to be timely, and timeliness comes with revision risk. Another uncertainty is interpretation: changes in nominal sales do not always reveal whether households are buying more, paying more, or changing what they buy. Finally, local relevance is limited unless the national report is paired with credible Schaumburg, Chicago-area or Illinois data.

Sources